The Niger Delta Avengers (NDA),
responsible for the relentless attacks on oil facilities in the Niger
Delta, has resumed their disruptive attacks in the Delta, indicating
possibilities of another cycle of dip in Nigeria’s crude oil production
stock.
For the second time in a space of two
days after it resumed bombing of oil facilities, the group last Monday
night reportedly breached two manifolds operated by the Nigerian
Petroleum Development Company (NPDC), the exploration and production
subsidiary of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), at
Batan community in Warri South-west Local Government Area of Delta
State.
This was after it had in the wee hours of
Sunday morning allegedly blew five oil facilities, including two more
trunk lines belonging to the NNPC in the area and oil well 10 operated
by Chevron at Mararaba community in Gbaramatu Kingdom.
As expected, industry experts have
expressed views that the renewed destruction of facilities by the group
will likely impact oil production and revenue accruable to the country.
The development is however coming on the heels of reported dialogue
between militants and the federal government.
Backed and led by the Minister of State
for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, the dialogue was called up to
halt the activities of the groups considering its impact on Nigeria’s
oil production. Both parties had reportedly disclosed their decision to
ceasefire for 30 days to allow for the dialogue.
It offered President Muhammadu Buhari’s
government some very limited time to come up with a comprehensive plan
for the oil-rich region which the militants said was being short-changed
by the Nigerian State, hence, their anger and rebellion.
Apart from that, it also offered the
country an opportunity to claw back production volumes it had lost from
past disruptions. But the group in their resumption of hostilities,
warned that the dialogue committee constituted by the government should
not be seen as a diversionary ploy.
They explained that weeks after Buhari
announced the composition of the committee, nothing concrete had
happened with the dialogue.
This was however contrary to what
Kachikwu said recently in China where he went to sign off new investment
potentials in the sector for the country. He had told Bloomberg that
dialogue with the militants was going on fine.
“All the way from January right through
to April of this year, we were producing about 1.9 to 2.2 million
barrels per day which is still within the threshold that we budgeted for
the year.
“In May and June, we suffered a lot of
militant attacks which took us all the way down from 2.2 million barrels
to about 1.3 million.
“We have managed to begin to lead
conversations with the militants. We have been able to get production
back to about 1.9 million barrels a day, we are continuing those
conversations and by the time the Forcados is repaired in July, we
should be able to come back to expected production ceiling for this year
of 2.2 million and begin to look whether we can increase a bit to
enable us recover the two to three months hiatus that we had.
“And so, things are looking up,
engagements are going on well, we have been able to make inroads into
those conversations but what is important is the need to continue that
momentum and to look to long term solutions to the Niger Delta crisis
that creates the militancy that we have,” Kachikwu stated.
Possible Impact
Days before the recent bombing was
carried out by the militants, NNPC had indicated that the country’s
production volume, which was down to about 1.3 million barrels per day
at the height of the disruptions, was beginning to come up.
The corporation stated at that time that
production was averaging 1.9 million barrels and could hit 2.2 million
by the second week of July, some weeks before the August prediction of
Kachikwu, for production to come back up to that level.
But with the recent development, even
though no official status of production level has been reported, the
possibility of a production dip is palpable especially from past
experience of the impact of such attacks.
The group’s activities have also, in the
past, resulted in lesser gas available for power production by gas power
plants. This then suggests that the nation’s gradual ramping of power
generation may again be cut back.
Since February, the Avengers had
religiously carried out attacks on oil installations at least on a
weekly basis. If their operational mode is to be considered, their
resumption of bombing of oil installations would not be a good omen for
Nigeria.
They and other groups have said they were
protesting against the Nigerian government, which they alleged was
stealing natural resources in the Niger Delta region and refusing to
develop the region.
The militants had previously indicated
that they would go on with their violent campaign against oil mining in
the Delta and was not interested in dialogue. They even said at a point
that they wouldn’t stop their operations until Nigeria’s oil production
dropped to zero.
Also, their disruptive tendencies have
the potential to impact oil prices if allowed to fester, and cut
Nigeria’s contribution to global oil supply. WNC
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